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Why Oil Prices Could Fall to $20 and Saudi Arabia Will Emerge on Top thumbnail

九洲体育

Oil markets have been rocked by two simultaneous events. The novel coronavirus has knocked out millions of barrels worth of demand for oil, and a supply war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has added millions of barrels of supply. For the past week, most analysts have treated these developments as disconnected events. The supply war seemingly had more to do with a clash of personalities within OPEC and an allied group known as OPEC+ that includes Russia. The hope was that “cooler heads will prevail” and everyone will agree to a supply cut, so prices go back up. But Saudi Arabia’s move to boost supply, to an expected 12.3 million barrels a day in April from 9.7 million last month, now looks like a more-calculated move to take advantage of the demand drop and grab a more substantial chunk of market share. ...

Consumption

Oil Demand To Plunge By 10 Million Barrels Per Day

As major economies go into lockdown, oil demand continues to fall off a cliff. On Monday, WTI fell into the $20s. “The additional quarantine measures imposed in France, Spain and elsewhere over the weekend has spurred a ‘world championship’ in demand loss forecasting this morning,” Bjoernar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s head of Oil Markets, said in a statement. A week ago, the U.S. was doing very little. In just a few days’ time, there has been a proliferation of school cancellations, mass gathering prohibitions and mandatory telework orders. Restaurant closures are next. Pretty soon much of the country will be on some form of a lockdown. The Federal Reserve slashed rates to near zero over the weekend, using up all of its ammo to head off as economic recession and financial crisis. The central bank also said that it would purchase “at least $500 ...

Consumption

Kunstler: Things Have Changed

At least in wartime, the bars stay open. That’s how you know this is a different thing altogether from whatever else you’ve seen in your lifetime. Even those of us who signed up for this trip — that is, who expected a long emergency — may be a little bit in cosmic awe at just how much shit is flying into the ol’ fan. I know I am. The gods must have glugged down a mighty draft of Dulcolax. Did you get the feeling, as I did, watching the Sanders-Biden debate last night — the inadequate versus the irrelevant — that the world they were blathering about possibly doesn’t exist anymore? The world of institutions that actually function? Like, the ones that conjure up whatever sum of money you demand to keep all the wheels spinning? Remember that Hemingway line about ...

Production

OPEC and IEA warn developing countries could lose up to 85% of oil and gas income this year

Developing countries’ oil and gas income could fall to their lowest levels in more than two decades if current energy market conditions persist, the IEA and OPEC have warned in a rare joint statement. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol and OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo expressed “deep concerns” about the coronavirus pandemic on Monday, warning it could have “potentially far-reaching economic and social consequences.” Birol and Barkindo said they expect developing countries to see their oil and gas income fall by 50% to 85% in 2020. They singled out public sector spending in vital areas such as health care and education as being especially vulnerable. International benchmark?Brent?crude traded at $29.91 Tuesday morning, down around 0.7%, while?U.S. West Texas Intermediate?(WTI) stood at $28.98, more than 1% higher. Oil prices slid 10% in the previous session, as the coronavirus continues to spread worldwide and amid an ongoing ...

Is it time to freak out? thumbnail

Is it time to freak out?

Toilet paper? Have people lost their minds? Of course, I have wondered that many times even without the coronavirus scare, but it’s toilet paper that people are panic buying? I seriously don’t get that, but there is a real threat from Covid-19. The most pressing and important long-term effect beyond the deaths that will occur is the economic disruption that will almost certainly lead to a recession. It could even get worse, and we could have a legitimate stock market crash. Perhaps worst of all, our medical care system is about to be put to a very significant test. As we shut down society to help control the spread of the disease, we are also effectively shutting down the economy. Right now, people are panic-buying toilet paper, but what will be next? Doesn’t that point to a capacity within people to be ...

Business

Spectacularly wrong: Why Wall Street doesn’t understand the corona virus

Investment professionals on Wall Street spend their days reading financial reports and looking at numbers flash on screens. These numbers record the moment-to-moment changes in the collective wisdom of markets about the value of stocks, bonds, commodities and a distressing array of derivative financial products. From the comfort of the sealed caverns of Wall Street the actual physical and social world is just an abstraction to be quantified and analyzed. One of Wall Street's most prominent investment research and management firms released an analysis that says the corona virus won't be all that bad for the economy. Analysts from Morningstar Inc.—which is actually headquartered in Chicago's cavernous downtown—say that this pandemic will be a "mild pandemic." I'm not sure how pandemics can be mild, but the analysts outline cases for "moderate" and "severe pandemics." One of the things that gives these analysts such ...

Public Policy

The SPR Fiasco

If as a result of COVID-19 and declining worldwide oil demand "American-made crude oil" exports get whacked say by 2MM BOPD, that oil could be used to fill the SPR to the top, another 77MM barrels will do it (EIA,DOE). It will then take the mighty US shale oil industry 39 days to accomplish that. Filling the SPR will cost the American taxpayer $2.7 billion dollars. I think the quality of the light tight oil being dumped into the SPR is not optimal, but that hardly seems to matter...?the US shale oil industry needs help. At a $35 WTI?per barrel sale price the US shale oil sector will realize $650,000,000 of net revenue from filling the ?SPR, after all costs, taxes and royalty associated with extraction are paid. Current public and private long term shale oil debt accrued over the past eleven years ...

The Shit Might Actually Be Hitting The Fan But Somehow It Doesn’t Feel Real thumbnail

The Shit Might Actually Be Hitting The Fan But Somehow It Doesn’t Feel Real

So here we are. Right on the cusp of that SHTF event that we’ve been prepping for all these years. A global pandemic. A breakdown in the supply chain. Shoppers who are already becoming agitated and even violent. We’re watching it all unfold in our hometowns and across our nation right now. Yet, somehow, it still doesn’t feel real to me. Is it just me who finds this hard to fathom? Am I the only one who still thinks doubtful thoughts? Like “No way. It’s going to be okay. You’re overreacting. It’s a little scare, just like Ebola and MERS and SARS.” I’ve researched and written about this stuff for years. I always knew it could happen. I was whole-heartedly convinced of these possibilities and yet when this situation began to move irrevocably toward disaster, I find myself, somehow, shocked. I can’t be the only one who ...

Saudi Prince MBS Gambles on Oil Markets thumbnail

Saudi Prince MBS Gambles on Oil Markets

Saudi Arabia is now flooding the international market with cheap oil, a move that could hurt Russia’s dominance in the industry and derail its 2020 economic plans. Russia has repeatedly failed or refused to abide by OPEC agreements, prompting the Saudi leadership to crank up oil supplies to unprecedented levels. The current oil supply war is likely to negatively impact the Saudi economy, which is largely dependent on the trade. Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also known as MBS, has once again revealed his impulsive side to the world in the oil clash with Russia.?Glaring evidence of his mercurial nature emerged after the gruesome killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (colloquially known as MBS) is the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and Deputy Prime Minister. He has been described as the power ...

General Ideas

Kunstler Confab with David Collum about Corona Virus, Markets Gone Wild, and Politics

David Collum is the Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry at Cornell University. He is the intellectual utility infielder of internet commentary, covering all the bases: culture, politics, finance, science, and technology, with often surprising views on the the predicaments of our time. Here we attempt to make sense of the fast-moving corona virus story and the increasingly weird and troubling second-order events spinning off of it into the global economy and politics. Dave tweets at @DavidBCollum The theme music for the podcast is the Two Rivers Waltz by Larry Unger. Direct Download: http://bbs.yl879.icu/kunstlercast/KunstlerCast_326.mp3 Please send questions and comments to?jhkunstler@mac.com

Alternative Energy Hydrogen: The Secret To Commercializing Nuclear Fusion
Scientists around the world are racing towards a green energy solution that is cheap, ...
A Millenial’s Eye View of the Collapse of Industrial Civilization thumbnail A Millenial’s Eye View of the Collapse of Industrial Civilization
Play Video
A discussion held this week with a true Millenial Generation (Born 1998, Age 21) ...
Oil: Blood In The Streets thumbnail Oil: Blood In The Streets
Arguably one of the wildest months in oil history, it's hard to imagine that ...
Iraqi economic crisis looms as oil prices collapse thumbnail Iraqi economic crisis looms as oil prices collapse
Crashing oil prices are likely to put a massive strain on Iraq's economy, including ...

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@MrKRudd I warned you at 2010 Epping Boys High Cabinet Community Meeting about OPEC's paper barrels. My latest post: Impact of #coronavirus similar to some earlier #peakoil scenarios crudeoilpeak.info/impact-of-coro… Ghawar peak now being hidden but problem will pop up inconveniently @PatsKarvelas

test Twitter Media - @MrKRudd I warned you at 2010 Epping Boys High Cabinet Community Meeting about OPEC's paper barrels. My latest post: Impact of #coronavirus similar to some earlier #peakoil scenarios
http://t.co/o7n66xE8S1 Ghawar peak now being hidden but problem will pop up inconveniently @PatsKarvelas http://t.co/PCam2HfxR7
test Twitter Media - @MrKRudd I warned you at 2010 Epping Boys High Cabinet Community Meeting about OPEC's paper barrels. My latest post: Impact of #coronavirus similar to some earlier #peakoil scenarios
http://t.co/o7n66xE8S1 Ghawar peak now being hidden but problem will pop up inconveniently @PatsKarvelas http://t.co/PCam2HfxR7
test Twitter Media - @MrKRudd I warned you at 2010 Epping Boys High Cabinet Community Meeting about OPEC's paper barrels. My latest post: Impact of #coronavirus similar to some earlier #peakoil scenarios
http://t.co/o7n66xE8S1 Ghawar peak now being hidden but problem will pop up inconveniently @PatsKarvelas http://t.co/PCam2HfxR7

With all the news surrounding the Saudi oil that is currently flooding the market and dropping prices, it's a good time to brush up on oil reserves and how much we have. Check out the podcast we made dedicated to the subject of #peakoil youtu.be/UZ6cvYUdykM #climatechange